Fenerbahçe linked with André Luiz
The Index reckons Luiz stays put.
The question: where will Luiz be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Talks (reported, not confirmed) · Ekrem Konur · 33m ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports talks. One independent source now reports interest.
- New report: Ekrem Konur, talks (Fenerbahçe), 33m ago · Original report ↗
- New report: Ekrem Konur, interest (Fenerbahçe), 33m ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 26%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 33m ago
- The fans say
- Nobody’s called it yet
SWOOP opened this story automatically on 15 Nov, when credible reporting first linked André Luiz with a move. A person can void it if it comes to nothing.
Early · 1 sourceAn early read: one lower-tier source (Ekrem Konur) so far, so the figure is small and moves little until another source agrees.
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- TalksFEN33m ago
Talks: André Luiz to Fenerbahçe
Ekrem KonurTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index - InterestFEN33m ago
Interest: André Luiz to Fenerbahçe
Ekrem KonurTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
How likely is Luiz to join Fenerbahçe?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 11%.
Split your call across every outcome For when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- FENFenerbahçeIndex 1111%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 1111%=
- STAYStays at Sporting Kansas CityIndex 7878%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
Why 11%?
The Index reckons Luiz stays (78%). There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 78%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- FEN
Interest: André Luiz to Fenerbahçe
Ekrem Konur · Tier 4 · Low · 33m ago · View on X ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 33m ago · latest report 33m ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Fenerbahçe have enquired11→30%Fenerbahçe
- A reliable report that Fenerbahçe have gone cold11→1%Fenerbahçe
The story so far
The evidence trail
1 independent source counted · earliest report we hold: 15 Nov by Ekrem Konur · latest 33m ago
2 original · 0 corroborating · 0 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
Ekrem Konur reports that Fenerbahçe are in talks over André Luiz.
Ekrem Konur reports that Fenerbahçe are interested in André Luiz.