Atlético linked with Martín Zubimendi
The Index reckons Zubimendi stays put.
The question: where will Zubimendi be registered when calls close on 1 Feb, 23:00 (UK)?
A January 2027 window transfer: the window opens 1 January. Calls made now count in full: you’re scored on how well you beat the Index while you held your view, so calling months ahead is neither penalised nor padded.
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Latest credible report: Interest (reported, not confirmed) · Ekrem Konur · 2d ago · Original report ↗
One independent source now reports interest. One other outlet repeated existing reports (not counted again).
- New report: Ekrem Konur, interest (Atlético), 2d ago · Original report ↗
Could be anywhere from 1% to 30%. Not much to go on yet.
- Where it’s at
- Being watched
- Last update
- 23m ago
Latest
Every report, in order ↓- You came for thisInterestATM6h ago
Interest: Martín Zubimendi to Atlético de Madrid
SPORTTier 3 · MixedCounted in the Index - InterestATM2d ago
Interest: Martín Zubimendi to Atlético Madrid
Ekrem KonurTier 4 · LowCounted in the Index
How likely is Zubimendi to join Atlético?
Drag to make your call. The Index says 14%.
Why 14%?
The Index reckons Zubimendi stays (75%). Atlético are still in the hunt at 14%. There’s not much to go on yet, so treat it as a ballpark.
The Index’s official wording, as recorded
The Index makes staying the most likely outcome at 75%. Atlético remain a live alternative at 14%. Evidence is thin, so treat this as a range rather than a firm number.
The evidence
- ATM
Interest: Martín Zubimendi to Atlético de Madrid
SPORT · Tier 3 · Mixed · 6h ago · View on X ↗
- ATM
Interest: Martín Zubimendi to Atlético Madrid
Ekrem Konur · Tier 4 · Low · 2d ago · View on X ↗
What’s against it
Nothing reliable is pulling the other way.
The situation this week
This saga is less than a week old.
Number last recalculated 23m ago · latest report 6h ago
What to watch
The model re-run with one extra report from a top-tier source. Hypothetical, not a prediction.
- A reliable report that Atlético have enquired
Split your call across every outcomeFor when you think it’s going somewhere else entirely.
What’s your call?
You score by beating the Index at the time you call. The more uncertain it was, and the longer you held your view (up to a week), the more it counts.
- STAYStays at ArsenalIndex 7676%=
- ATMAtléticoIndex 1414%=
- OTHAnother clubIndex 1010%=
No point gaming it: the scoring rewards what you honestly believe. Calling it early earns more than jumping on late.
The story so far
Model update, 10 Nov: figures since then use SWOOP-engine-1.7 (before: SWOOP-engine-1.6). It changed how much a club starts with before strong reporting, not the evidence, so any step on that day is the model, not news. What changed
Does the club need him?
Context, not part of the IndexHe’d add to a strength: defending, where they’re already 3rd of 20 in their league.
- defendinghim 79 · them 3rd of 20
- physicalhim 79 · them 9th of 20
His strongest areas (70th percentile and up) against where each club’s regulars rank in its league.
What’s driving it?
Context, not part of the IndexManager: Diego Simeone · 14 years in the job
Who decides the signing. Manager pressure from rated reporting in the last 30 days.
The evidence trail
2 independent sources counted · earliest report we hold: 10 Nov by Ekrem Konur · latest 6h ago
1 original · 0 corroborating · 1 repeats (counted once) · 0 pointing the other way. Earlier reports may exist that we don’t hold.
SPORT reports that Atlético are interested in Martín Zubimendi.
Ekrem Konur reports that Atlético are interested in Martín Zubimendi.
What they’re saying
No pundit has weighed in on this one yet. Their takes appear here as they post about it. See every take on the Live wire.
The small print
- Status
- Open for calls
- Scoring window
- 10 Nov → 1 Feb, 23:00
- Rule applied
- R2/R3 — locks at official announcement or deadline
- Evidence
- Pending
Only official club or league confirmation resolves a move. “Done deal” reports never lock a situation. Full rulebook